Translating the second conversation about AI into clear analysis for the people who need to act on it.
Analysis at the intersection of artificial intelligence, national security, and the infrastructure decisions that will define the next era of governance.
Deep analysis of AI governance, defense procurement, and the strategic decisions being made outside public view.
From the Power Moves Before Policy Does newsletter to my forthcoming book on structured analytic techniques in the generative age.
Purpose-built analytical tools and interactive dashboards that turn complex data into actionable intelligence.
Artificial intelligence isn't just a software story. It's a resource story. A governance story. A geopolitical story.
How do the foundational tools of intelligence analysis evolve when generative AI reshapes the information environment? This book examines the intersection of proven analytic frameworks and emergent AI capabilities.
How must structured analytic techniques adapt when AI can generate, manipulate, and flood the information space?
Bridging classic intelligence methodology with the realities of generative AI.
I operate at the intersection of artificial intelligence and national security, translating the conversations happening in badge access briefings, procurement offices, and strategic planning cells into clear, actionable analysis for the people who need it most.
My work spans AI policy analysis, defense technology strategy, and the infrastructure decisions that will define the next era of governance. I write for an audience that doesn't have time for filler: the staffers preparing the brief, the strategists weighing the options, and the decision-makers who need signal, not noise.
Through my newsletter Power Moves Before Policy Does and my forthcoming book Structured Analytic Techniques in the Generative Age, I'm building a body of work that bridges the gap between what AI can do and what policymakers need to understand about it.
Analyzing how governments are (and aren't) keeping pace with AI capability development.
Examining the integration of AI into national security infrastructure and military decision-making.
Following the resource story beneath the technology story: energy, compute, supply chains.
High-resolution images available for press, conferences, and publications.
Deep dives into the policy decisions, infrastructure realities, and strategic dynamics shaping artificial intelligence and national security.
A logistics AI designed to optimize supply chains begins producing intelligence-grade assessments about adversary mobilization. The system was never authorized to assess adversary intent. But it's already acting on its own conclusions — and the humans are still figuring out what it saw.
Read BriefingOpenAI released a policy blueprint proposing a robot tax, a public wealth fund, and automatic safety-net triggers for AI-driven displacement. A private company just did Congress's homework. That should make you uncomfortable regardless of whether you like the answers.
Read BriefingCoordinated synthetic audio drops twelve days before the midterms. The forensics are ambiguous, the platforms disagree, and every government response carries political risk. The NSC Deputies Committee needs your recommendation in six hours.
Read BriefingSection 702 expires April 20. Federal agencies can purchase Americans' personal data from brokers, feed it through AI systems, and conduct pattern-of-life analysis without a warrant. Two bipartisan bills would close the loophole. Congress has 18 days.
Read BriefingA foreign intelligence service uses commercially available AI voice cloning to impersonate senior U.S. intelligence officials on real phone calls, extracting classified personnel rosters from IC analysts. The scenario is fictional. Every capability it describes exists today.
Read BriefingThe series that translates national security arguments across partisan lines, because the stakes are too high for tribal shorthand. The Department of War demanded Anthropic remove safety guardrails. Anthropic said no. The government retaliated. A judge flagged it. And Congress has done nothing.
Read BriefingInteractive tools embedded in the briefings. Play with them here, or read the analysis they were built for.
Make the calls. Watch the consequences. These simulations put you in the chair where the decisions happen.
Purpose-built tools for analysis, visualization, and decision support.
A defense intelligence policy analysis tool that helps decision-makers determine when policy is too restrictive to innovate, but too open to prevent real failures.
The DCSI tracks how data center buildouts are stressing local infrastructure across the United States. As AI companies race to build computing capacity, communities are absorbing the costs: strained power grids, depleted water supplies, and local governance structures that were never designed for industrial-scale data operations.
The dashboard scores counties on energy burden, water consumption, grid reliability, and community impact, then assigns letter grades from A (minimal stress) to F (critical). It turns the abstract "data center boom" into concrete, county-level intelligence that policymakers, journalists, and community leaders can act on.
The DCSI composite score is built from four weighted stress dimensions:
Each dimension is normalized to a 0-100 scale, weighted, and combined into a composite score that maps to letter grades. The methodology is designed to surface compounding risks where multiple stress dimensions converge in a single county.
Policymakers, journalists, researchers, and community leaders who need to understand the local cost of the AI infrastructure boom.
PRDS is a defense intelligence policy analysis tool. It helps decision-makers answer one question for each organization in their portfolio: Is this organization's current policy posture appropriate given its mission, capacity, and risk environment?
The tool targets the USD(I&S) portfolio, covering 10 organizations and 200+ sub-entities across the defense intelligence and security enterprise. It produces two key outputs for every organization: a recommended operating zone where total risk is minimized, and a 7-dimension policy profile showing how the organization scores across seven areas of intelligence community policy, from collection authorities to oversight compliance.
Any decision about policy restrictiveness produces harm in two directions simultaneously. Too restrictive: the organization loses the ability to coordinate, share intelligence, and respond in time. Too permissive: it exposes itself to exploitation and accountability failures. PRDS makes the structure of that tradeoff visible so consequences can be weighed before the choice is made.
PRDS implements a multi-objective optimization framework over two opposing sigmoid risk functions, parameterized by institutional capacity:
Every policy and organization is assessed across 7 dimensions, each scored 0.0 (most permissive) to 1.0 (most restrictive), mapped to the Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) series: Collection & Operational Authorities, Classification & Dissemination, Personnel Security & Vetting, Foreign Partnership & Disclosure, Technology & Acquisition Controls, Workforce Governance, and Oversight & Compliance.
In Gen Four, dimension weights are empirically derived via logistic regression on 225 scored events. The heaviest weights are Classification & Dissemination (0.276) and Oversight & Compliance (0.259), confirming these as the strongest predictors of outcome.
Defense intelligence decision-makers, policy analysts, and senior leaders in the USD(I&S) portfolio who need to evaluate whether organizational policy postures are calibrated to mission requirements and risk environments.
Structured Analytic Techniques in the Generative Age — how the intelligence community's analytic tradecraft must be redesigned, not augmented, for the era of generative AI.
Covers three new failure modes (plausible-sounding synthesis, confident hallucination, source traceability collapse) and proposes four redesigned SAT frameworks.
Build plan, evidence architecture, and offline deployment strategy for an agent that scans software repositories, producing a tiered confidence report with zero internet dependency.
Layered check architecture across four evidence tiers: presence, usage, integration (AST + call graph), and behavioral (test suite). Supports Python, JS/TS, Go, Java, C#, Rust, and C/C++.
For decades, structured analytic techniques have served as the backbone of intelligence analysis. But the information environment these techniques were designed for no longer exists.
Generative AI has fundamentally altered what it means to collect, evaluate, and synthesize information. When AI can produce convincing text, imagery, and data at scale, the analyst's challenge is no longer just finding the signal - it's verifying that the signal is real.
This book provides a practical bridge between classic analytic methodology and the generative AI era.
How must structured analytic techniques evolve when AI can generate, manipulate, and flood the information space?
Intelligence analysts, policy researchers, national security professionals, and anyone whose work depends on getting the analysis right.
Bridging proven methodology with generative AI realities - practical frameworks for practitioners, not abstract theory.
The legacy of structured analytic techniques - what still works, what's breaking, and why the information environment demands an update.
How large language models, synthetic media, and AI-generated data change the analytical landscape.
Updated frameworks for hypothesis testing, source evaluation, and bias detection.
Field-ready applications, case studies, and workflows for analysts integrating updated techniques.
Whether you're interested in speaking engagements, media inquiries, collaboration opportunities, or just want to continue the conversation.
